Decision Support Tools
Future climate change is expected to cause dramatic changes in the physical and biological environment of the San Pablo Bay National Wildlife Refuge (Refuge). To effectively plan for an uncertain future, managers and decision makers must consider a range of future scenarios using tools and decision support frameworks that can incorporate uncertainty. The purpose of this climate adaptation project is to use the best available information to (1) identify a suite of actions with the highest likelihood of achieving Refuge goals that are feasible and contribute to larger landscape conservation (e.g., USFWS Tidal marsh Recovery Plan 2013); (2) gain a better understanding of the projected impacts of climate change on refuge conservation targets; and (3) identify the suite of measures needed to assess conservation progress and support an adaptive decision-making framework.
San Francisco Bay Estuarine-Terrestrial Transitional Zone Decision Support System
Lead Agency: Brian Fulfrost & Associates /San Francsco Bay Bird Observatory
Release Date: July 2016
This GIS-based decision support system (DSS) identifies and maps the distribution of potential tidal marsh-upland transitional habitats (aka ecotones) and ranks their value to tidal marsh ecosystem conservation. The DSS is designed to assist land managers in prioritizing transitional geography (i.e. land surfaces with the proper elevation) based on their potential value to the protection and restoration of the San Francisco Bay Estuary. The DSS also includes maps of transition zone distributions under Sea Level Rise (SLR) and a document providing a functional definition for transition zones.
Climate Adaptation Decision Support (CADS)
Lead Agency: SFBJV, California Landscape Conservation Cooperative and USFWS Refuge Inventory and Monitoring Program
Release Date: July 2015
CADS tools and models were developed through a participatory decision process to address complex decisions and help resource managers prioritize how to allocate limited resources across multiple habitats and species needs in the context of of climate change and other environmental stressors. The models used for the original report were developed as tools to inform near and long term resource management allocations in various habitats (sub tidal, intertidal mudflat, tidal marsh, upland transition, and migration space) under different climate and resource scenarios with the intent to maintain biotic integrity. The models and full report can be found here, http://climate.calcommons.org/cads. Using the Science Update to the Baylands Goals (2015) as the basis for securing concurrence on conservation targets, action categories, and evaluated trade-offs as well as prioritize resource allocations and categories of actions on the greater landscape scale.
Human Disturbance Impacts Report
Lead Agency: Kathi Borgmann
Release Date: September 2010
This report compiles and summarizes the impacts of human disturbance on waterbirds from over 50 studies and is meant to assist in making management decisions with regard to public access and buffer/set-back zone distances, routing of trails, and other considerations.
Resource Document: Human disturbance impacts Report FINAL.pdf